U.S. Predicts Diabetes Epidemic to Go On Unchecked

As cases increase, so will accompanying health problems, experts predict

By Steven Reinberg
HealthDay Reporter
Sunday, June 24, 2007; 12:00 AM

Copyright © 2007 ScoutNews, LLC. All rights reserved.

SATURDAY, June 23 (HealthDay News) -- By 2050, an estimated 48 million Americans will have type 2 diabetes as the epidemic continues unabated, according to new federal projections.

But along with the disease will come increases in accompanying health problems, such as blindness and hearing loss, according to several presentations to be made Saturday at the American Diabetes Association annual meeting, in Chicago.

"From 1963 to 2005, we saw periods of sharp increase in the rate of diabetes cases," said Linda S. Geiss, chief of diabetes surveillance at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and lead author of the first presentation. "Increases in diabetes cases have been going on for 15 years, and it doesn't look like it's slowing down," she added.

Reviewing data from the National Health Interview Survey, Geiss' team found that from 1990 to 2005, cases of diabetes increased from 26.4 per 1,000 people to 54.5 per 1,000 people, a 4.6 percent increase each year.

Geiss believes the diabetes epidemic is largely being driven by obesity, which is also epidemic in the United States. "It's alarming that diabetes has grown for the last 15 years, and it doesn't show any signs of slowing," she said. "That means, for a long time to come, diabetes is going to be a major public health problem."

In another presentation, Dr. Jinan Saaddine, a medical epidemiologist at the CDC, and colleagues calculated the number of people in the United States who will be suffering from diabetic retinopathy by 2050. Diabetic retinopathy is an eye disease that can cause decreased vision and even blindness.

"Right now, there are 5.5 million people with diabetic retinopathy," Saaddine said. "By 2050, that number will increase to 16 million. For the most severe disease, which is the vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy, the number will be increasing from 1.2 million in 2005 to 3.4 million in 2050."

Saaddine warned that the U.S. health-care system will need to take steps to be prepared for this dramatic increase in cases of diabetic retinopathy. "We need to work on better disease management, because diabetic retinopathy happens due to poor disease management," she said.